WHAT IS GOING ON IN 'BAMA? – AT 10:46 A.M. ET:  Today Alabama elects a senator, after one of the most bitter, most publicized Senate campaigns in history.  The election will decide who replaces Jeff Sessions, who resigned from the Senate to become attorney general of the United States.

But wait a sec.  Have you seen the polls?  Man, they're all over the place.  Roy Moore in a landslide, says one.  Jones in a landslide says another.  You thought polls were scientific?  Well, sometimes.  Nate Silver has an excellent analysis of the kind of polling being done in Alabama, and this should clarify things quite a bit, although it won't predict the race.  From fivethirtyeight:   

Somebody’s going to be wrong in Alabama.

We’ve already urged caution when interpreting polls of Alabama’s special election to the U.S. Senate, which will be held on Tuesday. Some of that is because of the media’s usual tendency to demand certainty from the polls when the polls can’t provide it. And some of it is because of the circumstances of this particular race: a special election in mid-December in a state where Republicans almost never lose but where the Republican candidate, Roy Moore, has been accused of sexual misconduct toward multiple underaged women.

What we’re seeing in Alabama goes beyond the usual warnings about minding the margin of error, however. There’s a massive spread in results from poll to poll — with surveys on Monday morning showing everything from a 9-point lead for Moore to a 10-point advantage for Democrat Doug Jones — and they reflect two highly different approaches to polling.

Most polls of the state have been made using automated scripts (these are sometimes also called IVR or “robopolls”). These polls have generally shown Moore ahead and closing strongly toward the end of the campaign, such as the Emerson College poll on Monday that showed Moore leading by 9 points. Recent automated polls from Trafalgar Group, JMC Analytics and Polling, Gravis Marketing and Strategy Research have also shown Moore with the lead.

But when traditional, live-caller polls have weighed in — although these polls have been few and far between — they’ve shown a much different result.

COMMENT:  Please read the whole thing, and save the piece.  This is the best explanation of polling techniques that I've read recently. 

We don't know who will win.  Sadly, the Republicans probably won't win no matter what the outcome.  If they lose the race, they lose a critical vote in the Senate, in what should have been a cakewalk.  If they win with Roy Moore, they're saddled with a man with serious sexual-behavior charges against him, and a highly controversial and eccentric background.  Even the senior senator from Alabama, Republican Richard Shelby, refuses to support Moore.

I'd rather see the GOP keep the seat.  But the party needed a much better candidate.

December 12, 2017